Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World

PrefaceMost people acknowledge that the earth is finite. Yet the belief that continuednmaterial growth is possible and desirable remains an important influence on thenmajority of public and private decisions. Policy makers generally assume that growthnwill provide them tomorrow with the resources required to deal with todayrs problems.nPromises that the poor will receive a share of the additional goods and servicesncreated by growth are widely substituted for any real effort to change social values ornredistribute current income. Deficit spending, high interest rates, and the squanderingnof materials are all prevalent, and all are justified in part by the claim that morenincome, greater productivity, and increased resource reserves will inevitably be availablenin the future.Recently, however, concern about the consequences of population growth, increasednenvironmental pollution, and the depletion of fossil fuels has cast doubt uponnthe belief that continuous growth is either possible or a panacea. Yet it is difficult fornindividuals or institutions to recognize or respond to limits to growth, for the causesnand consequences of increased production and population extend over long timenperiods, are numerous, and lie interlinked within a system too complex to be encompassedneasily by the human mind. Before current social objectives and institutionalnforms can be intelligently reevaluated, new theoretical bases are required to assist innunderstanding the dynamics of growth in a finite world.In July 1970 the executive committee of The Club of Rome attended a seminarnpresented by members of the System Dynamics Group at the Massachusetts Institutenof Technology. The committee had come to determine whether the system analysisntechniques developed at M.I.T. by Professor Jay W. Forrester and his associatesncould provide new perspectives on the interlocking complex of costs and benefitsninherent in continued physical growth on a finite planet. Professor Forrester broughtnto The Club of Rome meeting a preliminary computer simulation model, callednWorld2, that specified important relationships among population, economic output,nand environmental constraints. At the meeting, plans were developed for a researchnprogram to test and extend Forresterrs initial theories. I directed the group of scientists and students involved in that effort, and worked with my associates to preparenthe material for three reports on our research. n n