AUSWIRKUNGEN EINER EU-OSTERWEITERUNG IM BEREICH DER AGRARPOLITIK AUF DEN EU-HAUSHALT

This discussion paper presents the results of a study on the impacts of EU East enlargement on the EU agricultural budget. The calculations have been carried out with the partial equilibrium model 'Central and Eastern European Countries Agricultural Simulation Model (CEECASIM) that has been developed at IAMO. An accession scenario has been assumed in which the Common Agricultural Policy as reformed by the European Council of Berlin in March 1999 is applied in ten Central and Eastern European countries. Besides the price support measures also the area payments and the animal premiums as well as the production quotas for milk and sugar are implemented in the candidate countries. According to the model results the annual expenditures for the ten Central and Eastern European candidate countries in the areas of cereals, oilseeds, sugar, milk and beef amount to Euro 7.5 billion at prices of 1999 to be financed by the EU budget. This corresponds to 20 % of the total agricultural expenditure (without rural development) as foreseen in the financial perspectives of the European Commission. The greatest share of these expenditures arises from the area payments for cereals and oilseeds and from the premiums in the beef and milk sector.