Summary of FY-1978 consultant input for scenario methodology development

Associated with commercial nuclear power production in the United States is the generation of potentially hazardous radioactive waste products. The Department of Energy (DOE), through the National Waste Terminal Storage (NWTS) Program, is seeking to develop nuclear waste isolation systems in geologic formations. These underground waste isolation systems will preclude contact with the biosphere of waste radionuclides in concentrations which are sufficient to cause deleterious impact on humans or their environments. Comprehensive analyses of specific isolation systems are needed to assess the postclosure expectations of the systems. Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems (AEGIS) program has been established for developing the capability of making those analyses. The assessment of repository post-closure safety has two basic components: identification and analyses of breach scenarios and the pattern of events and processes causing each breach, and identification and analyses of the environmental consequences of radionuclide transport and interactions subsequent to a repository breach. Specific processes and events which might affect potential repository sites and, the rates and probabilities for those phenomena are presented. The description of the system interactions and synergisms and of the repository system as an evolving and continuing process are included. Much of the preliminary information derived from the FY-1978 research effort is summarized in this document. This summary report contains information pertaining to the following areas of study: climatology, geomorphology, glaciology, hydrology, meteorites, sea level fluctuations, structural geology and volcanology.