Relative importance of climate and land use in determining present and future global soil dust emission

The current consensus is that up to half of the modern atmospheric dust load originates from anthropogenically‐disturbed soils. Here, we estimate the contribution to the atmospheric dust load from agricultural areas by calibrating a dust‐source model with emission indices derived from dust‐storm observations. Our results indicate that dust from agricultural areas contributes <10% to the global dust load. Analyses of future changes in dust emissions under several climate and land‐use scenarios suggest dust emissions may increase or decrease, but either way the effects of climate change will dominate dust emissions.