Modelling Based Estimates for Severe Pneumonia and Pneumonia Deaths in Indian States

This presentation highlights the use of mathematical model to estimate burden of disease in absence of surveillance data. We estimated that in 2010, 3.57 million severe pneumonia cases and 0.45 million all cause pneumonia deaths occurred in children under age 5 years. Among these cases, the contribution of pneumococcal pneumonia was 15.8% to all cause pneumonia cases and 20.8% to all cause pneumonia deaths. Three states requires specific mention, Uttar Pradesh contributes (24% cases, 24% deaths), Bihar (16% cases, 17% deaths) and MP (9% cases, 10% deaths) to the national figures. They were top contributors to pneumococcal pneumonia burden also.