Modeling emergent risks in complex airspace: UAS operations in a metroplex environment

This paper presents Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) modeling and simulation for Houston metroplex conducted under the FAA System Safety Management Transformation (SSMT) program. The modeling and simulation utilizes a use case scenario that is consistent with the FAA's concept of operations for integration of UAS into the National Airspace System. The use case scenario comprises of environmental sensing with medium fixed wing reciprocating UAS that is modelled in Houston metroplex using actual radar track traffic data on a typical day. The modeling and simulation includes mechanisms that are unique for UAS operations, such as `detect and avoid' vs. `see and avoid', different mission profiles, as well as a range of stochastic parameters including positional variance, performance variance, fuzzy conflicts, latency time in communication, and deviation from planned or intent profiles. The output variables include separation indices and the number and severity of the separation events induced by the UAS operations. A negative binomial and lognormal regression analyses of the output variables are used to develop risk estimates of UAS operations in a metroplex environment.