Prediction of the distribution of Arctic‐nesting pink‐footed geese under a warmer climate scenario

Abstract Global climate change is expected to shift species ranges polewards, with a risk of range contractions and population declines of especially high‐Arctic species. We built species distribution models for Svalbard‐nesting pink‐footed geese to relate their occurrence to environmental and climatic variables, and used the models to predict their distribution under a warmer climate scenario. The most parsimonious model included mean May temperature, the number of frost‐free months and the proportion of moist and wet moss‐dominated vegetation in the area. The two climate variables are indicators for whether geese can physiologically fulfil the breeding cycle or not and the moss vegetation is an indicator of suitable feeding conditions. Projections of the distribution to warmer climate scenarios propose a large north‐ and eastward expansion of the potential breeding range on Svalbard even at modest temperature increases (1 and 2 °C increase in summer temperature, respectively). Contrary to recent suggestions regarding future distributions of Arctic wildlife, we predict that warming may lead to a further growth in population size of, at least some, Arctic breeding geese.