A physical habitat model for predicting the effects of flow fluctuations in nursery habitats of the endangered Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius)

Larval and juvenile Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) use shallow, low-velocity, channel-margin areas (backwaters) as nursery habitats. It is hypothesized that within-day flow fluctuations caused by hydropower operations can directly affect the suitability of such habitats by altering water temperature and habitat geometry. Despite the importance of backwaters to juvenile fishes, there is a lack of established approaches for modelling how river management affects these habitats. Here, we describe a physical habitat model that predicts the effects of mainstem flow variation on backwater temperature, geometry and invertebrate availability. We specifically modelled these effects on habitat in a portion of the Green River in Utah below Flaming Gorge Dam. The overall model combines a cell-based model of backwater geometry, a pond-based temperature model and a model of invertebrate production. Results from a series of simulations suggest that the most important biological effects of within-day flow fluctuations are likely to be those associated with the availability of invertebrate prey including (1) minimum wetted area, (2) the proportion of the backwater's volume exchanged with the mainstem, and, to a lesser degree, (3) backwater temperature. Taken together, such effects could have important implications for the growth and survival of juvenile fish when flow fluctuations are sufficiently large. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.