Paleoseismology along the 1980 surface rupture of the Irpinia Fault: Implications for earthquake recurrence in the southern Apennines, Italy

The Irpinia fault was the source of the M s 6.9 1980 Irpinia earthquake and produced the first unequivocal historical surface faulting in Italy. Trenching of the 1980 fault scarp at Piano di Pecore, a flat intermontane basin about 5 km south of the 1980 instrumental epicenter, provides the first data on earthquake recurrence intervals, slip per event, and slip rate on a major normal fault in the Southern Apennines fault zone. The trenches exposed evidence of four pre‐1980 paleoearthquakes that occurred during the past 8600 years. A best estimate average recurrence interval is 2150 years, although the time interval between individual events varies by as much as a factor of 2. Each paleo earthquake is similar to the 1980 surface rupture in amount of slip and style of deformation, which suggests that the 1980 event is characteristic for the Irpinia fault. Slip per event values average 61 cm. The net vertical displacement of 2.12–2.36 m since 8600 cal year B.P. observed in the trenches gives a vertical slip rate of 0.25–0.35 mm/yr, a dip slip rate of 0.29–0.40 mm/yr, and an extension rate of 0.14–0.20 mm/yr. Although fault behavior data are only available for the Irpinia fault they provide a starting point for evaluating earthquake recurrence and rates of deformation in southern Apennines. They suggest that (1) fault specific earthquake recurrence intervals based on the historical seismic record overestimates the occurrence of large magnitude ( M 7) earthquakes and (2) the Holocene rate of extension across the Apennines is ≤1 mm/yr. The 1980 earthquake and the paleoseismologic observations show that repeated and localized surface faulting occurs in southern Apennines and leaves subtle but distinct geomorphic evidence that can be detected with detailed and careful investigation.