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Several studies have indicated that insulin resistance, elevated blood pressure (BP), and dyslipidemia precede the onset of non-insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (NIDDM). Little data, however, exist on the presence of renal disease in prediabetic subjects. We measured albumin excretion in a cross-sectional population study in subjects 65-74 years of age living in eastern Finland in relation to the risk of developing diabetes 3.5 years later. The prevalence of microalbuminuria (urinary albumin-to-urinary creatinine ratio > or = 2 mg/mmol) was 1.3-, 1.8-, and 2.0-fold higher among subjects with impaired glucose tolerance (n = 242), newly diagnosed NIDDM subjects (n = 92), and previously diagnosed NIDDM subjects (n = 136), respectively, compared with subjects with normal glucose tolerance (n = 826). Nondiabetic subjects with microalbuminuria had multiple abnormalities in cardiovascular risk factors including elevated BP, high triglyceride concentration, high insulin concentration, and a low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentration, a cluster of risk factors typical for prediabetic individuals. The relationship between microalbuminuria and the incidence of NIDDM over the 3.5-year follow-up was studied in 891 subjects who were free of diabetes at baseline. Converters to diabetes (n = 69) had a higher prevalence of hypertension (68.1 vs. 54.4%, P < 0.05) and a higher prevalence of microalbuminuria (43.5 vs. 30.4%, P < 0.05) than nonconverters (n = 822). In logistic regression analysis, microalbuminuria predicted the development of NIDDM independently of BP level.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)