BIOECONOMIC MODELING WITH STOCHASTIC ELEMENTS IN SHRIMP CULTURE

Abstract The results of this study include the incorporation of water quality parameters and a growth function into a bioeconomic model of shrimp culture. Since the level of various parameters is unpredictable for future years (i.e., weather, ponds experiencing low oxygen), randomization of these parameters was introduced into the model. The results consist of a mean and standard deviation of profit determined from 25 replications of the model. The baseline model indicates that a mean profit of $679 per hectare would be achieved with only a 5% chance of a loss. Sensitivity tests of profit in the model, consisting primarily of changes in biological and environmental parameters, illustrate the usefulness of the model in directing future research.