The Emerging Science of Very Early Detection of Disease Outbreaks

A surge of development of new public health surveillance systems designed to provide more timely detection of outbreaks suggests that public health has a new requirement: extreme timeliness of detection. The authors review previous work relevant to measuring timeliness and to defining timeliness requirements. Using signal detection theory and decision theory, the authors identify strategies to improve timeliness of detection and position ongoing system development within that framework.