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Summary Seeding native plants is a key management practice to counter land degradation across the globe, yet the majority of seeding efforts fail, limiting our ability to accelerate ecosystem recovery. Recruitment requires transitions through several seed and seedling stages, some of which may have overriding influences on restoration outcomes. We lack, however, a general framework to understand and predict differences in these critical demographic processes across species. Functional traits influence fitness, and consequently, trait variation could provide the basis for a framework to explain and predict variation in life stage transition probabilities. We used seed and seedling traits, and field probabilities of germination, emergence, seedling establishment, and survival for 47 varieties of drylands grasses under two watering treatments to identify critical life stage transitions and quantify the effect of traits on cumulative survival through the first growing season. Variation in germination and emergence probabilities explained over 90% of the variation in cumulative survival regardless of seedling survival probabilities or watering treatment, with emergence probability being the strongest predictor of cumulative survival. Coleoptile tissue density and seed mass had significant effects on emergence and germination, respectively, explaining 10–23% of the variation in transition probabilities. Synthesis and applications . While the majority of functional trait work has centred on linking leaf and root traits to resource acquisition and utilization, our study demonstrates that traits associated with germination and emergence may have prevailing influences on restoration outcomes. A portion of these traits have been examined, but there is substantial opportunity to identify other key traits driving these demographic processes. These advancements will underpin our ability to develop trait‐based frameworks for overcoming recruitment barriers and facilitating recovery of degraded systems across the globe.