Elements of Surprise: The 2005 Election and the Formation of the Grand Coalition

The 2005 federal election departed from familiar patterns of German electoral and coalition politics. For the past six decades, federal coalition formation has been guided and shaped by increasingly well-entrenched informal rules. While remaining generally operative in 2005, there were significant deviations and departures from these customary rules. The outcome was the most prolonged, turbulent, and uncertain process of coalition formation in the Federal Republic's history, even once the logic of the Grand Coalition had become evident. The Grand Coalition that finally emerged bears a decided Social Democratic imprimatur, reflecting both post-election realities and the ability of the SPD to play a relatively weak hand to maximum advantage. Yet by revealing a new readiness to face Germany's structural problems and to arrive at pragmatic, if not necessarily dramatic, solutions, the 2005 Grand Coalition demonstrated once again the strength of Germany's consensus politics. At the same time, the electoral trends revealed in 2005 suggest not only new coalition options but also more difficult coalition negotiations in the future. But, as the Länder have demonstrated, less predictability in coalition formation need not lead to less political stability.