The long-term prediction of offender recidivism using diagnostic, personality, and risk/need approaches to offender assessment.

The present study examined the prediction of recidivism using diagnostic, personality, and risk/need approaches over a 10-year follow-up in a heterogeneous sample of 61 offenders (i.e., probationers and provincial and federal offenders). The Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI), Psychopathy Checklist–Revised (PCL-R), and DSM–III antisocial personality disorder (APD) were examined. The measures were highly correlated and demonstrated theoretically meaningful patterns of convergent validity. Although psychopathy was highly correlated with both LS/CMI and APD, the majority of the shared variance with LS/CMI and with APD was accounted for by Factor 2 and the criminality facet of the PCL-R. All three assessment measures predicted future violence, any future reincarceration upon release, and recidivism severity (as measured by aggregate sentence length). However, none of these measures made a significant incremental contribution to the prediction of recidivism beyond either of the other two measures. Differences between the predictive validities of the three measures were minimal. The results are discussed in terms of recent debates concerning the use of these instruments in the assessment of offender risk.