MASS MEDIA, THE ELECTORATE, AND THE BANDWAGON. A STUDY OF COMMUNICATION EFFECTS ON VOTE CHOICE IN GERMANY

The paper addresses two propositions: (1) that by publishing news stories about the electoral strength of parties or candidates, the mass media contribute to shaping the voters' expectations about the likely outcome of an upcoming election; (2) that these expectations in turn stimulate a bandwagon effect, i.e. they influence vote choice to the advantage of the apparent future winner of the election. Analyzing media content and survey data gathered during the campaign for the first all-German national election of December 2, 1990, it can be shown that (1) interest in the media's political reporting as well as interpersonal political communication contributed significantly to converting voters to the view of the election outcome that was constantly presented by the mass media; (2) this belief in turn caused particularly unsophisticated independent voters to vote for the apparent winner of the election. Referring to the conceptual framework of ‘low information rationality’, this bandwagon effect is interpreted as ‘majority-led proxy voting’. Since public opinion polls play the key role in its definition, the media portrayal of the competing parties' electoral prospects can be assumed to be fairly accurate, so that voters relying on such information in casting their vote are not misled.