Unusually Large Fluctuations in the Statistics of Galaxy Formation at High Redshift

We show that various milestones of high-redshift galaxy formation, such as the formation of the first stars or the complete reionization of the intergalactic medium, occurred at different times in different regions of the universe. The predicted spread in redshift, caused by large-scale fluctuations in the number density of galaxies, is at least an order of magnitude larger than previous expectations that argued for a sharp end to reionization. This cosmic scatter in the abundance of galaxies introduces new features that affect the nature of reionization and the expectations for future probes of reionization, and may help explain the present properties of dwarf galaxies in different environments. The predictions can be tested by future numerical simulations and may be verified by upcoming observations. Current simulations, limited to relatively small volumes and periodic boundary conditions, largely omit cosmic scatter and its consequences. In particular, they artificially produce a sudden end to reionization, and they underestimate the number of galaxies by up to an order of magnitude at redshift 20.