Response of glaciers in northwestern North America to future climate change: an atmosphere/glacier hierarchical modeling approach

Abstract The response of glaciers to changing climate is explored with an atmosphere/glacier hierarchical modeling approach, in which global simulations are downscaled with an Arctic MM5 regional model which provides temperature and precipitation inputs to a glacier mass-balance model. The mass balances of Hubbard and Bering Glaciers, south-central Alaska, USA, are simulated for October 1994–September 2004. The comparisons of the mass-balance simulations using dynamically-downscaled vs observed temperature and precipitation data are in reasonably good agreement, when calibration is used to minimize systematic biases in the MM5 downscalings. The responses of the Hubbard (a large tidewater glacier) and Bering (a large surge-type glacier) mass balances to the future climate scenario CCSM3 A1B, a ‘middle-of-the-road’ future climate in which fossil and non-fossil fuels are assumed to be used in balance, are also investigated for the period October 2010–September 2018. Hubbard and Bering Glaciers are projected to have increased accumulation, particularly on the upper glaciers, and greater ablation, particularly on the lower glaciers. The annual net balance for the entire Bering Glacier is projected to be significantly more negative, on average (–2.0ma –1 w.e., compared to –1.3ma –1 w.e. during the hindcast), and for the entire Hubbard Glacier somewhat less positive (0.3ma –1 w.e. compared to 0.4 ma –1 w.e. during the hindcast). The Hubbard Glacier mass balances include an estimated iceberg calving flux of 6.5 km 3 a –1 , which is assumed to remain constant.