Frequency and Duration Methods for Power System Reliability Calculations Part III: Generation System Planning

This paper provides a description of a generation system planning technique employing Markov chain representations of generation system and load models. The results of two previous papers, which described methods for calculating generation system reserve margin states, are used to develop the planning technique. Studies of generation system expansion using the technique are described. For the first time, numerical relationships are developed between generation system reliability measured by the "loss-of-load probability" method and the "frequency and duration" method. Sample load statistics representing many company years of data are offered in substantiation of the load model.