Community Change and Patterns of Delinquency

One of the most important findings of the classic Shaw and McKay delinquency research was that the distributional pattern of delinquency in Chicago remained relatively stable over time despite processes of ethnic and racial invasion and succession. This paper re-examines this proposal during three 10-year periods spanning 1940-70 using Shaw and McKay's own data as well as a more recent set of observations. Evidence is presented that their model is tenable only between 1940 and 1950; since 1950, changing neighborhoods tend to be characterized by changing levels of delinquency. Historical shifts in the nature of ecological processes that may account for this divergence are discussed.