Antibody Titer Has Positive Predictive Value for Vaccine Protection against Challenge with Natural Antigenic-Drift Variants of H5N1 High-Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Viruses from Indonesia

H5N1 high-pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) virus has become endemic in Indonesian poultry, and such poultry are the source of virus for birds and mammals, including humans. Vaccination has become a part of the poultry control strategy, but vaccine failures have occurred in the field. This study identified possible causes of vaccine failure, which included the use of an unlicensed virus seed strain and induction of low levels of protective antibody because of an insufficient quantity of vaccine antigen. However, the most important cause of vaccine failure was the appearance of drift variant field viruses that partially or completely overcame commercial vaccine-induced immunity. Furthermore, experimental vaccines using inactivated wild-type virus or reverse genetics-generated vaccines containing the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase genes of wild-type drift variant field viruses were protective. These studies indicate the need for surveillance to identify drift variant viruses in the field and update licensed vaccines when such variants appear.