Vehicle trajectory prediction based on motion model and maneuver recognition

Predicting other traffic participants trajectories is a crucial task for an autonomous vehicle, in order to avoid collisions on its planned trajectory. It is also necessary for many Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, where the ego-vehicle's trajectory has to be predicted too. Even if trajectory prediction is not a deterministic task, it is possible to point out the most likely trajectory. This paper presents a new trajectory prediction method which combines a trajectory prediction based on Constant Yaw Rate and Acceleration motion model and a trajectory prediction based on maneuver recognition. It takes benefit on the accuracy of both predictions respectively a short-term and long-term. The defined Maneuver Recognition Module selects the current maneuver from a predefined set by comparing the center lines of the road's lanes to a local curvilinear model of the path of the vehicle. The overall approach was tested on prerecorded human real driving data and results show that the Maneuver Recognition Module has a high success rate and that the final trajectory prediction has a better accuracy.