Operational storm surge forecasting in the Netherlands: developments in the last decade

The accurate forecasting of storm surges is an important issue in the Netherlands. With the emergence of the first numerical hydrodynamic models for surge forecasting at the beginning of the 1980s, new demands and possibilities were raised. This article describes the main phases of the development and the present operational set-up of the Dutch continental shelf model, which is the main hydrodynamic model for storm surges in the Netherlands. It includes a brief discussion of applied data-assimilation techniques, such as Kalman filtering, the model calibration process and some thoughts on quality assurance in an operational environment. After further describing some select recent investigations, the paper concludes with some remarks on future developments in a European context.