Fuzzy-neural approaches to the prediction of disruptions in ASDEX Upgrade

Disruption is a sudden loss of magnetic confinement that can cause damage to the machine walls and support structures. For this reason, it is of practical interest to be able to detect the onset of such an event early. A novel technique is presented of early prediction of plasma disruption in tokamak reactors which uses neural networks and `fuzzy' inference. The studies carried out in the work make use of an experimental database of disruptive shots made available by the ASDEX Upgrade Team. The main result of the work is that, in the limit of the available database, it is possible to predict the onset of the disruptive event sufficiently in advance in order to put the control system into action. The proposed system is a modular scheme that exploits a decomposition of the original database carried out in a proper way.