Uncertainties of mass extrapolations in Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov mass models

Some 27 Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) mass models have been developed by the Brussels-Montreal collaboration. Each of these models has been obtained with different model prescriptions or corresponds to a significantly different minimum in the parameter space. The corresponding uncertainties in the mass extrapolation are discussed. In addition, for each of these models, uncertainties associated with local variations of the model parameters exist. Those are estimated for the HFB-24 mass model using a variant of the backward-forward Monte Carlo method to propagate the uncertainties on the masses of exotic nuclei far away from the experimentally known regions. The resulting uncertainties are found to be significantly lower than those arising from the 27 HFB mass models. In addition, the derived correlations between the calculated masses and between model parameters are analyzed.