Actuarial Prediction of Sexual Recidivism

An actuarial approach to predicting sexual recidivism among known sex offenders is illustrated with a reanalysis of follow-up data of rapists and child molesters. One hundred seventy-eight sex offenders who had been assessed at a maximum security psychiatric facility were followed for an average of 59 months of opportunity to reoffend. Twenty-eight percent were convicted of a new sex offense and 40% were arrested, convicted, or returned to the psychiatric facility for a violent (including sex) offense. Rapists were more likely to recidivate than child molesters. Psychopathy, measures of previous criminal history, and phallometric indexes of deviant sexual interests were found to be useful predictors of sexual recidivism. A predictor scale was formed by weighting each predictor that was significant in the regression analyses by a number reflecting its univariate correlation with the criterion. A linear relationship (r = .45) was found between scores on the predictor scale and reconviction for a sexual offense.