A new approach to recognition of the strong earthquake-prone areas in the Caucasus

Clustering the epicenters of Caucasian earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 3.0 is carried out, and the epicentral zones of the probable earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 areas where epicenters of earthquakes with M ≤ 5.0 may occur are recognized by the Fuzzy Clustering and Zoning (FCAZ) algorithmic system developed by the authors at the Geophysical Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences. These zones correspond well to the locations of the epicenters of earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0. The zones recognized in this study are compared with the zones previously recognized by A.D. Gvishiani et al. in 1988 by the Earthquake-Prone Areas Recognition (EPA) technique. The comparison shows that the zones identified by FCAZ are mainly located inside the EPA-zones. The FCAZ-zones are also compared with the zones previously recognized using gravimetric and geological data. The results obtained by different methods closely agree. Contrary to EPA technique FCAZ algorithmic system relies on the DPS algorithm of objective classification that requires only the information about epicenters of the earthquakes in the region under study.