On kinematic waves II. A theory of traffic flow on long crowded roads

Abstract This paper uses the method of kinematic waves, developed in part I, but may be read independently. A functional relationship between flow and concentration for traffic on crowded arterial roads has been postulated for some time, and has experimental backing (§2). From this a theory of the propagation of changes in traffic distribution along these roads may be deduced (§§2, 3). The theory is applied (§4) to the problem of estimating how a ‘hump’, or region of increased concentration, will move along a crowded main road. It is suggested that it will move slightly slower than the mean vehicle speed, and that vehicles passing through it will have to reduce speed rather suddenly (at a ‘shock wave’) on entering it, but can increase speed again only very gradually as they leave it. The hump gradually spreads out along the road, and the time scale of this process is estimated. The behaviour of such a hump on entering a bottleneck, which is too narrow to admit the increased flow, is studied (§5), and methods are obtained for estimating the extent and duration of the resulting hold-up. The theory is applicable principally to traffic behaviour over a long stretch of road, but the paper concludes (§6) with a discussion of its relevance to problems of flow near junctions, including a discussion of the starting flow at a controlled junction. In the introductory sections 1 and 2, we have included some elementary material on the quantitative study of traffic flow for the benefit of scientific readers unfamiliar with the subject.