Plant traits as predictors of woody species dominance in climax forest communities

Abstract. The dominance of a given tree or shrub species in a particular forest community may be determined by many ecological traits of the target species, as well as those of the surrounding species as its potential competitors. The present study was conducted to evaluate the possibility of predicting community status (species composition and dominance) on the basis of traits of local flora using statistical methods, and to visualize the mathematical function which determines species dominance. A general linear model and logistic regression were used for the statistical analysis. Dependent variables were designated as dominance and presence/absence of species in climax forest, with independent variables as vegetative and reproductive traits. Subalpine, cool‐temperate, warm‐temperate and subtropical climax rain forests in East Asia were studied. Quantitative prediction of climax community status could readily be made based on easily measured traits of local flora. Species composition and 74.6% of the total variance of species dominance were predicted based on two traits; maximum height and shade tolerance. Through application of this method, the capacity of an alien species to invade a climax forest community could possibly be predicted prior to introduction of the alien species.