THE ???AQUASCOPE??? SIMPLIFIED MODEL FOR PREDICTING 89,90Sr, 131I, and 134,137Cs IN SURFACE WATERS AFTER A LARGE-SCALE RADIOACTIVE FALLOUT

Simplified dynamic models have been developed for predicting the concentrations of radiocesium, radiostrontium, and 131I in surface waters and freshwater fish following a large-scale radioactive fallout. The models are intended to give averaged estimates for radionuclides in water bodies and in fish for all times after a radioactive fallout event. The models are parameterized using empirical data collected for many lakes and rivers in Belarus, Russia, Ukraine, UK, Finland, Italy, The Netherlands, and Germany. These measurements span a long time period after fallout from atmospheric nuclear weapons testing and following the Chernobyl accident. The models thus developed were tested against independent measurements from the Kiev Reservoir and Chernobyl Cooling Pond (Ukraine) and the Sozh River (Belarus) after the Chernobyl accident, from Lake Uruskul (Russia), following the Kyshtym accident in 1957, and from Haweswater Reservoir (UK), following atmospheric nuclear weapons testing. The AQUASCOPE models (implemented in EXCEL spreadsheets) and model documentation are available free of charge from the corresponding author.