A LOADING-DEPENDENT MODEL OF PROBABILISTIC CASCADING FAILURE

2005348 citationsJournal Article

Authors

Ian Dobson · University of Wisconsin–Madison

B. A. Carreras · Oak Ridge National Laboratory

D. E. Newman · University of Alaska Fairbanks

Abstract

We propose an analytically tractable model of loading-dependent cascading failure that captures some of the salient features of large blackouts of electric power transmission systems. This leads to a new application and derivation of the quasibinomial distribution and its generalization to a saturating form with an extended parameter range. The saturating quasibinomial distribution of the number of failed components has a power-law region at a critical loading and a significant probability of total failure at higher loadings.

Topics & Keywords

Complex Network Analysis Techniques Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis

UN Sustainable Development Goals

Affordable and clean energy

Publication Details

Published in: Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences

Volume 19, Issue 1, pp. 15-32

DOI: 10.1017/s0269964805050023

Field-Weighted Citation Impact: 10.52