Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Logistics Development and GDP Growth in China

As an important link of national economy, logistics usually changes accordingly with the developing of economy, and reversibly puts its influence on economy developing at the same time. Whether logistics can meet the demand of the economy development is a severe problem worthy to be considered. It is necessary to study the relation between logistics and the macroeconomy and, according to their relation and the rule of change, make adjustment to reach the harmony between the logistics development and the present high-rate developing economy of China. By cointegration analysis and error correction model, this paper investigates the long run and dynamic relation between logistics development and GDP growth in main land of China from the data of traffic turnover volume increment and GDP growth increment from 1952 to 2004. The result shows that there is a reliable cointegration relationship between GDP increment and logistics volume increment. The finding indicates that logistics development plays an important role to GDP growth and it is important to keep the balance between both of them