Perspectives on roadmaps: how organizations talk about the future

Roadmaps, in the traditional sense, are concerned mostly with space and position. In the way that industrial and public research institutions use the term, though, roadmaps reveal the time dimension of technological progress. The many and increasing applications of roadmaps have generated confusion about what they are for and what they accomplish amid the many tools and techniques of managing technology. Roadmapping is itself a trend, while it seeks to exploit the trends underlying technology. The practice has side effects, biases, and behavioral consequences that are often not visible to practitioners, and until now, were unexamined by researchers. This study provides an organizational perspective on roadmapping as currently practiced, presents the experience of several organizations that have implemented it, and evaluates the results. Using a case-based, exploratory method the author addresses several practical questions, such as: What are the effects of roadmapping? How are they measured? Is roadmapping always appropriate? How would an organization know if it was roadmapping well? What are the various kinds of roadmaps and how do they relate to each other? In addition, some more general lessons about organizational behavior emerge from the case data. Cases were selected from several large industrial firms participating in a research consortium exploring the modern challenges and tools of technology management. These firms granted extensive access to the research team and actively participated in the analysis, demonstrating a unique and productive model of research collaboration between academic researchers and business practitioners. Central to an understanding of roadmapping behavior is noticing the tension between its dual nature. Roadmaps are both forecasts of what is possible or likely to happen, as well as plans that articulate a course of action. They are, in a sense, personal to their authors. Roadmaps can be used to align organizations in times of predictable change, but have limited insight into disruptive change. The most influential roadmaps originate as responses to perceived threats, and link the technical storyline to organizational and personal concerns. For those who would implement the technique, the article suggests practical ways to use these and other findings and offers basic definitions and vital questions for future research.