DNA Barcoding Will Often Fail to Discover New Animal Species over Broad Parameter Space

With increasing force, genetic divergence of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is being argued as the primary tool for discovery of animal species. Two thresholds of single-gene divergence have been proposed: reciprocal monophyly, and 10 times greater genetic divergence between than within species (the "10x rule"). To explore quantitatively the utility of each approach, we couple neutral coalescent theory and the classical Bateson-Dobzhansky-Muller (BDM) model of speciation. The joint stochastic dynamics of these two processes demonstrate that both thresholds fail to "discover" many reproductively isolated lineages under a single incompatibility BDM model, especially when BDM loci have been subject to divergent selection. Only when populations have been isolated for > 4 million generations did these thresholds achieve error rates of < 10% under our model that incorporates variable population sizes. The high error rate evident in simulations is corroborated with six empirical data sets. These properties suggest that single-gene, high-throughput approaches to discovering new animal species will bias large-scale biodiversity surveys, particularly toward missing reproductively isolated lineages that have emerged by divergent selection or other mechanisms that accelerate reproductive isolation. Because single-gene thresholds for species discovery can result in substantial error at recent divergence times, they will misrepresent the correspondence between recently isolated populations and reproductively isolated lineages (= species).