Brain atrophy rates predict subsequent clinical conversion in normal elderly and amnestic MCI

Higher whole brain and ventricle atrophy rates 1 to 2 years before baseline are associated with an increased hazard of conversion to a more impaired state. Combining a measure of hippocampal volume at baseline with a measure of either whole brain or ventricle atrophy rates from serial MRI scans provides complimentary predictive information about the hazard of subsequent conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease. However, overlap among those who did vs those who did not convert indicate that these measures are unlikely to provide absolute prognostic information for individual patients.