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3.5 Modeling the duration of civil war 80 4.1 Recurrent conflicts example 1: Afghanistan 104 4.2 Recurrent conflicts example 2: Angola 105 5.1 A comparison of Botswana and Sierra Leone 127 5.2 Transparency of oil revenues in Chad 131 5.3 The rough diamond trade and the Kimberley process 143 5.4 The Khmer Rouge and the logs of war 145 C O N T E N T S viii 4.8 Development of risk of civil war for the marginalized and successful developers, 2000-2020 103 4.9 The conflict trap: risk of civil war relative to a country with no recent war 106 4.10 The conflict trap by type of country 107 4.11 Risk components for marginalized countries in the conflict trap, relative to the same countries preconflict 107 4.12 The conflict trap in 2000: annual flows into and out of conflict 109 4.13a The conflict trap in 2020: annual flows into and out of conflict 111 4.13b The conflict trap in 2050: annual flows into and out of conflict 111 4.14 The incidence of civil war in South and East Asia and in Oceania, 1950-2001 112 4.15 The incidence of civil war in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1950-2001 113 4.16 The incidence of civil war in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 1950-2001 113 4.17 The incidence of civil war in the Middle East and North Africa, 1950-2001 114 4.18 The incidence of civil war in Sub-Saharan Africa, 1950-2001 114 4.19 The incidence of civil war in Africa and other developing countries, 1950-2001 115 5.1 The contribution to peace of faster growth in the successful developers 124 5.2 The contribution to peace of faster growth in the marginalized countries 135 5.3 The contribution to peace of shortening conflicts 141 5.4 The contribution to peace of successful postconflict policies 151 6.1 The contribution of the policy package to peace