Course and prognosis of childhood epilepsy: 5-year follow-up of the Dutch study of epilepsy in childhood

Knowing the prognosis of epilepsy will undoubtedly influence the treatment strategy. This study aimed to define the prospects of newly diagnosed childhood epilepsy, assess the dynamics of its course, identify relevant variables and develop models to assess the individual prognosis. Four hundred and fifty-three children with newly diagnosed epilepsy were followed for 5 years. Terminal remission at 5 years (TR5) was compared with terminal remission at 2 years (TR2) and with the longest remission during followup. Variables defined at intake and at 6 months of follow-up were analysed for their prognostic relevance. In multivariate analyses, combinations of variables were tested to develop reliable models for the calculation of the individual prognosis. Data on treatment, course during follow-up and epilepsy syndromes were also studied. Three hundred and forty-five children (76%) had a TR5 >1 year, 290 (64%) >2 years and 65 (14%) had not had any seizure during the entire follow-up. Out of 108 children (24%) with TR5 <1 year, 27 were actually intractable at 5 years. Medication was started in 388 children (86%). In 227 of these (59%), anti-epileptic drugs (AEDs) could be withdrawn. A TR5 >1 year was attained by 46% on one AED, on the second AED by 19%, and by 9% on all additional AED regimes.