2008 Solar Technologies Market Report

The focus of this report is the U.S. solar electricity market, including photovoltaic (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies. The report is organized into five chapters. Chapter 1 provides an overview of global and U.S. installation trends. Chapter 2 presents production and shipment data, material and supply chain issues, and solar industry employment trends. Chapter 3 presents cost, price, and performance trends. Chapter 4 discusses policy and market drivers such as recently passed federal legislation, state and local policies, and developments in project financing. Chapter 5 provides data on private investment trends and near-term market forecasts. Highlights of this report include: (1) The global PV industry has seen impressive growth rates in cell/module production during the past decade, with a 10-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46% and a 5-year CAGR of 56% through 2008. (2) Thin-film PV technologies have grown faster than crystalline silicon over the past 5 years, with a 10-year CAGR of 47% and a 5-year CAGR of 87% for thin-film shipments through 2008. (3) Global installed PV capacity increased by 6.0 GW in 2008, a 152% increase over 2.4 GW installed in 2007. (4) The United States installed 0.34 GW of PV capacity in 2008, a 63% increase over 0.21 GW in 2007. (5) Global average PV module prices dropped 23% from $4.75/W in 1998 to $3.65/W in 2008. (6) Federal legislation, including the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 (EESA, October 2008) and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA, February 2009), is providing unprecedented levels of support for the U.S. solar industry. (7) In 2008, global private-sector investment in solar energy technology topped $16 billion, including almost $4 billion invested in the United States. (8) Solar PV market forecasts made in early 2009 anticipate global PV production and demand to increase fourfold between 2008 and 2012, reaching roughly 20 GW of production and demand by 2012. (9) Globally, about 13 GW of CSP was announced or proposed through 2015, based on forecasts made in mid-2009. Regional market shares for the 13 GW are about 51% in the United States, 33% in Spain, 8% in the Middle East and North Africa, and 8% in Australasia, Europe, and South Africa. Of the 6.5-GW project pipeline in the United States, 4.3 GW have power purchase agreements (PPAs). The PPAs comprise 41% parabolic trough, 40% power tower, and 19% dish-engine systems.