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Recent functional trait studies have shown that trait differences may favour certain species (environmental filtering) while simultaneously preventing competitive exclusion (niche partitioning). However, phenomenological trait-dispersion analyses do not identify the mechanisms that generate niche partitioning, preventing trait-based prediction of future changes in biodiversity. We argue that such predictions require linking functional traits with recognised coexistence mechanisms involving spatial or temporal environmental heterogeneity, resource partitioning and natural enemies. We first demonstrate the limitations of phenomenological approaches using simulations, and then (1) propose trait-based tests of coexistence, (2) generate hypotheses about which plant functional traits are likely to interact with particular mechanisms and (3) review the literature for evidence for these hypotheses. Theory and data suggest that all four classes of coexistence mechanisms could act on functional trait variation, but some mechanisms will be stronger and more widespread than others. The highest priority for future research is studies of interactions between environmental heterogeneity and trait variation that measure environmental variables at within-community scales and quantify species' responses to the environment in the absence of competition. Evidence that similar trait-based coexistence mechanisms operate in many ecosystems would simplify biodiversity forecasting and represent a rare victory for generality over contingency in community ecology.