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Seedling recruitment limitations create a demographic bottleneck that largely determines the viability and structure of plant populations and communities, and pose a core restriction on the colonization of novel habitat. We use a shade‐tolerant, invasive grass, Microstegium vimineum, to examine the interplay between seed and establishment limitations – phenomena that together determine recruitment success but usually are investigated individually. We add increasing amounts of seed to microhabitats containing variable levels of leaf litter thickness – with reduced leaf litter simulating disturbance – to investigate whether reduced seed limitation overcomes the establishment limitation posed by litter cover. We do this across gradients in understory light, moisture and temperature, and quantify germination, survival, and then per capita adult biomass and reproduction in order to understand the implications for invasion across the landscape. We find that the combined effects of seed and establishment limitation influence recruitment; however, propagule pressure overwhelms the inhibitory effects of leaf litter thickness. Leaf litter reduces germination by 22–57% and seedling survival by 13–15% from that observed on bare soil. However, density‐dependent reproduction compensates as 1–3 plants can produce far more seeds (approx. 525) than are required for persistence. As such, just a few plants may establish in understory forest habitat and subsequently overwhelm establishment barriers with copious propagule production. These results, for a widespread, invasive plant, are consistent with the emerging perspective for native plants that seed and establishment limitation jointly influence recruitment. The ability for an exotic plant species to compensate for low population densities with high per capita seed production, that then overrides establishment limitations, makes its invasive potential daunting. Further work is required to test if this is a common mechanism underlying plant invasions.