Initial Crisis Reaction and Poliheuristic Theory

Poliheuristic (PH) theory models foreign policy decisions using a two-stage process. The first step eliminates alternatives on the basis of a simplifying heuristic. The second step involves a selection from amongthe remaining alternatives and can employ a more rational and compensatory means of processing information. The PH model posits that strategic/realist factors are more important in the second step of the process. The model is tested for the years 1918 to 1994, using crisis actors from the International Crisis Behavior data set. Results show that domestic political loss has a negative impact on the use of violence in response to a crisis trigger. Contiguity, joint democracy, and trigger are also significant in the expected directions. Relative capabilities have a positive impact, and enduring rivals do not appear more likely to use violence against each other as a first response in a crisis.