Development and Implementation of Wind-Generated Ocean Surface Wave Modelsat NCEP*

A brief historical overview of numerical wind wave forecast modeling efforts at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is presented, followed by an in-depth discussion of the new operational National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) “WAVEWATCH III” (NWW3) wave forecast system. This discussion mainly focuses on a parallel comparison of the new NWW3 system with the previously operational Wave Model (WAM) system, using extensive buoy and European Remote Sensing Satellite-2 (ERS-2) altimeter data. The new system is shown to describe the variability of the wave height more realistically, with similar or smaller random errors and generally better correlation coefficients and regression slopes than WAM. NWW3 outperforms WAM in the Tropics and in the Southern Hemisphere, and they both show fairly similar behavior at northern high latitudes. Dissemination of NWW3 products, and plans for its further development, are briefly discussed.