Potential Geographic Distribution of Anoplophora glabripennis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in North America

The potential for ecological and economic damage caused by invasive species is only beginning to be appreciated. A recently arrived, and particularly worrisome, invader in North America is the Asian longhorned beetle Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky), the larvae of which damage trees and forests. The geographic extent and likely path of its possible invasion of North American forests, however, are unknown. Herein, we develop and test ecological niche models for the species based on features of climate from the species' native distribution in eastern Asia, and then project them onto North America to identify areas of potential distribution. These models suggest that the species has the potential to invade much of eastern North America, but only limited areas in western North America, and that a focus of initiation of invasions is likely to lie in the area south of the Great Lakes. This result is particularly clear under modeled scenarios of spread and contagion.