Surface Ozone in China and its Possible Impact on Agricultural Crop Yields

Emissions of ozone precursors are expected to multiply the next 20 years in China, and the levels of photo-oxidants may increase substantially. Increased surface ozone gives cause for concern regarding the prospects for Chinese agricultural production. We show that crop production may be substantially reduced in the future due to elevated ozone concentrations, and that productivity may already be affected for some crops. However, crop-yield loss estimates obtained by using alternative exposure-response functions vary substantially. Spring wheat, soybean, and corn may be especially vulnerable to future ozone increases, due to a likely concurrence of peak levels of ozone and the growth season of these crops.