Towards robust gravitational wave detection with pulsar timing arrays

Precision timing of highly stable millisecond pulsars is a promising technique for the detection of very low frequency sources of gravitational waves. In any single pulsar, a stochastic gravitational wave signal appears as an additional source of timing noise that can be absorbed by the noise model, and so it is only by considering the coherent response across a network of pulsars that the signal can be distinguished from other sources of noise. In the limit where there are many gravitational wave sources in the sky, or many pulsars in the array, the signals produce a unique tensor correlation pattern that depends only on the angular separation between each pulsar pair. It is this distinct fingerprint that is used to search for gravitational waves using pulsar timing arrays. Here we consider how the prospects for detection are diminished when the statistical isotropy of the timing array or the gravitational wave signal is broken by having a finite number of pulsars and a finite number of sources. We find the standard tensor-correlation analysis to be remarkably robust, with a mild impact on detectability compared to the isotropic limit. Only when there are very few sources and very few pulsars does the standard analysis begin to fail. Having established that the tensor correlations are a robust signature for detection, we study the use of ``sky scrambles'' to break the correlations as a way to increase confidence in a detection. This approach is analogous to the use of ``time slides'' in the analysis of data from ground-based interferometric detectors.