THE MEASUREMENT OF SELECTION ON CORRELATED CHARACTERS

Natural selection acts on phenotypes, regardless of their genetic basis, and produces immediate phenotypic effects within a generation that can be measured without recourse to principles of heredity or evolution. In contrast, evolutionary response to selection, the genetic change that occurs from one generation to the next, does depend on genetic variation. Animal and plant breeders routinely distinguish phenotypic selection from evolutionary response to selection (Mayo, 1980; Falconer, 1981). Upon making this critical distinction, emphasized by Haldane (1954), precise methods can be formulated for the measurement of phenotypic natural selection. Correlations between characters seriously complicate the measurement of phenotypic selection, because selection on a particular trait produces not only a direct effect on the distribution of that trait in a population, but also produces indirect effects on the distribution of correlated characters. The problem of character correlations has been largely ignored in current methods for measuring natural selection on quantitative traits. Selection has usually been treated as if it acted only on single characters (e.g., Haldane, 1954; Van Valen, 1965a; O'Donald, 1968, 1970; reviewed by Johnson, 1976 Ch. 7). This is obviously a tremendous oversimplification, since natural selection acts on many characters simultaneously and phenotypic correlations between traits are ubiquitous. In an important but neglected paper, Pearson (1903) showed that multivariate statistics could be used to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of selection to determine which traits in a correlated ensemble are the focus of direct selection. Here we extend and generalize Pearson's major results. The purpose of this paper is to derive measures of directional and stabilizing (or disruptive) selection on each of a set of phenotypically correlated characters. The analysis is retrospective, based on observed changes in the multivariate distribution of characters within a generation, not on the evolutionary response to selection. Nevertheless, the measures we propose have a close connection with equations for evolutionary change. Many other commonly used measures of the intensity of selection (such as selective mortality, change in mean fitness, variance in fitness, or estimates of particular forms of fitness functions) have little predictive value in relation to evolutionary change in quantitative traits. To demonstrate the utility of our approach, we analyze selection on four morphological characters in a population of pentatomid bugs during a brief period of high mortality. We also summarize a multivariate selection analysis on nine morphological characters of house sparrows caught in a severe winter storm, using the classic data of Bumpus (1899). Direct observations and measurements of natural selection serve to clarify one of the major factors of evolution. Critiques of the adaptationist program (Lewontin, 1978; Gould and Lewontin, 1979) stress that adaptation and selection are often invoked without strong supporting evidence. We suggest quantitative measurements of selection as the best alternative to the fabrication of adaptive scenarios. Our optimism that measurement can replace rhetorical claims for adaptation and selection is founded in the growing success of field workers in their efforts to measure major components of fitness in natural populations (e.g., Thornhill, 1976; Howard, 1979; Downhower and Brown, 1980; Boag and Grant, 1981; Clutton-Brock et