Development of Petrov glacial-lake system (Tien Shan) and outburst risk assessment

Global climate warming causes an intensive melting and retreat of glaciers in the Tien Shan mountains. Melting water of glaciers causes overfilling of high mountain lakes. The increase of the surface and volume of the Petrov Lake accompanied with the decrease of stability of the dam represents an extremely dangerous situation that can produce a natural disaster. Failure can happen due to erosion, a buildup of water pressure, an earthquake or if a large enough portion of a glacier breaks off and massively displaces the waters in a glacial lake at its base. In case of the lake dam rupture, flooding of a disposal site of highly toxic tailing from the gold mine Kumtor is a threat. If this happens, the toxic waste containing cyanides would contaminate a large area in the Naryn (Syrdarya) river basin. Even if the flooding of the disposal site does not occur, the damage after lake dam fracture will be immense due to the glacial lake outburst flood may be a devastating mudslide. In order to prevent or reduce the risk of this event we recommend performing engineering surveys for the development and implementation of the project for the controlled reduction of water level in the Blue Bay of the Petrov Lake to a safe volume.