THE PRESS AND THE POLLS IN GERMANY, 1980-1994 POLL COVERAGE AS AN ESSENTIAL PART OF ELECTION CAMPAIGN REPORTING

Since their beginnings pre-election polls have been under attack from politicians and journalists. One of the most fundamental criticisms of polls is that they can influence the outcome of elections. This article investigates news media reporting of poll results and comments on public opinion research before Federal elections in Germany. It presents empirical findings for the quantity as well as the formal and substantial quality of this press coverage. The database is a content analysis of 443 pre-election poll articles published in Germany's leading dailies Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ), Frankfurter Rundschau (FR), Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), and Die Welt (Welt) between 1980 and 1994. The quantity of news media reporting of public opinion polls has improved over the years. Now, poll stories are a standard feature of German newspapers. The frequency of reports depends on the conditions of each election—e.g. on the expected closeness of the election outcome. The formal quality could be better—that is the conformity to AAPOR standards. Horse-race journalism isn't found as often as in the USA. Journalists often use poll results to predict an election outcome. Moreover, the analysis revealed an ambivalent relationship between liberal journalists and polls, while the reporting of conservative journalists is more in favor of opinion research.