Analyses the Driving Forces for Urban Growth by Using IDRISI®Selva Models Abouelreesh - Aswan as a Case Study

Urban growth is very dynamic and complex processes, It has many factors affects on the directions and value of urban extensions, the factors that drive urban development must be identified and analyzed, The study of relative research shows that the driving forces which lead and redirect the urban sprawl, and try to classified these driving forces based on the value of its effectives on urban growth, Achieving the classification of driving forces needs using statistical method, our study used the logistic regressions to analysis and classes the driving forces for urban sprawl, Identifying the driving forces is the most important step to prediction the urban growth in future by using the cellular automata models so that the research try to prepare this step to complete the procedure to expect the urban extensions, This study takes Aswan area as a case study in period from 2001 to 2013 by analysis the official detailed plan and google earth historical imagery, Almost data prepared to logistic regressions analysis using ArcGIS software and IDRISISelva. We studied historical imagery of the area using Google Earth to examine changes in urban growth in 2001 and 2013, over a span of 12 years. The results showed urbanization in risk areas to be 59.79 % in 2001, then rising to 65.45 % in 2013, by the end of this paper it can be classified the effect of the driving forces in study area.