Population Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Modeling of Tumor Size Dynamics in Pembrolizumab-Treated Advanced Melanoma

Pembrolizumab is a potent immune-modulating antibody active in advanced melanoma, as demonstrated in the KEYNOTE-001, -002, and -006 studies. Longitudinal tumor size modeling was pursued to quantify exposure-response relationships for efficacy. A mixture model was first developed based on an initial dataset from KEYNOTE-001 to describe four patterns of tumor growth and shrinkage. For subsequent analyses, tumor size measurements were adequately described by a single consolidated model structure that captured continuous tumor size with a combination of growth and regression terms, as well as a fraction of tumor responsive to therapy. This revised model structure provided a framework to efficiently evaluate the impact of covariates and pembrolizumab exposure. Both models indicated that exposure to the drug was not a significant predictor of tumor size response, demonstrating that the dose range evaluated (2 and 10 mg/kg every 3 weeks) is likely near or at the plateau of maximal response.